US Homebuyers Cancel Record 14.5% of Purchase Deals in September as Affordability Drops

American homebuyers backed out of purchase contracts at a historic pace in September, with 14.5% of deals falling through. The cancellation rate represents about one in every seven contracts, marking the highest level for any September on record outside the early months of the 2020 pandemic. Jacksonville led major metropolitan areas with a 19.9% cancellation rate, followed by Tampa, Las Vegas, and San Antonio. Meanwhile, sellers outnumbered buyers by 63%, creating the widest gap on record as pending sales sank 4%.

Borrowing costs continue to strain affordability, with mortgage rates climbing past 7% by the end of September. Unexpectedly high monthly payments and inspection issues prompted many contract cancellations. Although completed existing-home sales rose 1.5% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, overall transactions fell 2.2% compared to last year. Total inventory increased 1.9% to 1.60 million homes, and the median existing-home price reached $417,500.

Expanded inventory and reduced buyer competition give active shoppers greater leverage on prices and concessions. However, further rate increases could disqualify more potential buyers. Market participants will be watching whether continuing sales friction causes broader home price growth to flatten or turn negative in upcoming quarters.