S&P 500 Maintains Upward Streak as Strong Corporate Earnings Outlook Offsets Rate Concerns

The S&P 500 (SP:SPX) has completed 52 consecutive trading sessions without dropping 1% or more in a single day, marking its longest such run since July 2024. In addition, the New York Stock Exchange has logged 224 straight sessions without heavy broad-based selling, defined as days where declining shares account for at least 80% of total volume. This reflects sustained market stability despite higher interest rates, elevated inflation, and upcoming midterm election uncertainty.

Solid corporate profit expectations are providing crucial fundamental support for equities. Third-quarter total earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to increase 24.3% year over year on an 11.5% revenue rise. Early corporate reports show even stronger momentum, with total Q3 earnings for reporting members up 150.9% on 27% higher revenue, and nearly four out of five companies surpassing profit estimates. Profit growth forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 and early 2027 also remain in double-digit territory.

Investors will keep an eye on upcoming macroeconomic policy and election developments alongside seasonal consumer activity. Historical trends show that equities typically perform well following midterm elections, averaging a 12.4% gain over the subsequent 12 months. Meanwhile, U.S. holiday retail spending is projected to surpass $1 trillion during the November-December shopping season, offering another potential tailwind for the economy.