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Steel Futures Decline Toward Two-Month Lows as Global Demand Forecast Is Revised Downward

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Steel rebar futures fell toward CNY 3,080 per ton, nearing two-month lows, following a downward revision in global steel demand expectations. Worldwide steel demand is now expected to shrink by 0.1% this year, reversing a previous April estimate that called for 0.3% growth.

The reduced outlook reflects lingering weakness in major industrial economies. Steel consumption in China is projected to fall by 2% this year as the nation's real estate downturn extends longer than expected. In Europe, the recovery across the construction sector remains slow and inconsistent, while ongoing conflict in the Middle East has added further operational disruptions.

Growth prospects for the coming years have also been downgraded, with global demand expansion for 2027 lowered to 1.7% from an earlier 2.2% estimate. However, India continues to be a key bright spot for global steel consumption, with demand projected to rise by 7.9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.

Key points

  • Steel rebar futures fell near two-month lows toward CNY 3,080 per ton.
  • Global steel demand is now projected to shrink 0.1% this year, down from a prior 0.3% growth estimate.
  • Demand in China is forecast to fall 2% this year due to a prolonged property market slump.
  • Global steel demand growth for 2027 was revised down to 1.7% from 2.2%.
  • India remains the fastest-growing steel market, with demand expected to expand 7.9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.

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Questions and answers

Why are steel futures falling?

Steel rebar futures are falling due to a downward revision in global demand forecasts, driven by China's lingering property slump, a slow construction recovery in Europe, and Middle East disruptions.

What is the updated forecast for global steel demand?

Global steel demand is projected to contract by 0.1% this year, down from an earlier forecast of 0.3% growth. Long-term growth for 2027 was also cut from 2.2% to 1.7%.

Which country is seeing the fastest growth in steel demand?

India is the fastest-growing major steel market globally, with demand projected to grow by 7.9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.