Soybean Futures Drop Below $12.90 as USDA Boosts US Harvest Projections
Soybean futures (CBOT:ZS1!) fell 0.83% to 1,281 cents per bushel, dropping below $12.90 to hit a one-week low. The price decline follows updated domestic harvest projections that pointed to a more abundant U.S. supply outlook for the 2026/27 crop season.
The revised forecasts raised projected U.S. soybean yields to 53.1 bushels per acre from the 52.8 bushels estimated in September. That adjustment lifted expected U.S. production to 4.56 billion bushels from 4.535 billion. Estimated domestic ending stocks were also revised higher to 315 million bushels from 310 million, intensifying market focus on ample supplies. A 10 million bushel increase in projected export sales provided a partial offset, while average farm price projections held steady at $12 per bushel.
Traders are also weighing supply changes overseas. China's Agriculture Ministry lowered its 2026/27 domestic soybean output forecast by 590,000 tonnes to 20.36 million tonnes, pointing to reduced planting area and lower yields. The output cut, combined with elevated production costs, helped underpin local new-crop soybean prices in China.
Key points
- Soybean futures dropped 0.83% below $12.90 per bushel, touching a one-week low.
- The USDA raised its 2026/27 U.S. yield forecast to 53.1 bushels per acre, lifting total projected output to 4.56 billion bushels.
- U.S. ending stocks were revised up to 315 million bushels, while export forecasts rose by 10 million bushels.
- China's Agriculture Ministry reduced its crop production estimate by 590,000 tonnes to 20.36 million tonnes.
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How we writeDisclaimerQuestions and answers
Why are soybean prices falling?
Soybean prices fell due to an expanded U.S. supply outlook. Updated official estimates raised expected 2026/27 production to 4.56 billion bushels and increased ending stocks projections to 315 million bushels.
What is the U.S. soybean yield forecast for 2026/27?
The yield estimate was raised to 53.1 bushels per acre, up from the September projection of 52.8 bushels per acre.
How did China update its soybean production forecast?
China's Agriculture Ministry lowered its 2026/27 crop harvest forecast by 590,000 tonnes to 20.36 million tonnes, citing smaller planted acreage and lower yields.