Cocoa Prices Rise to Multi-Week Highs on Ivory Coast Harvest Delays
Cocoa futures climbed on Tuesday, with New York contracts reaching a one-month high after severe rainfall in the Ivory Coast disrupted local transportation networks and slowed the start of the main harvest. Damaged infrastructure and flooded roads prevented farmers from picking pods and delivering beans to shipping ports in the top cocoa-producing nation.
The supply bottlenecks add to long-term crop concerns across West Africa. Early field surveys for the 2026/27 season indicate below-average pod formation in the Ivory Coast, with total production projected to drop 18% to 1.8 million metric tons. Neighboring Ghana also expects output to fall due to plant diseases, aging cocoa trees, and an intensifying El Niño weather pattern that threatens to bring hotter, drier conditions to the region.
However, rising inventory levels and higher historical crop yields could temper price gains. Cocoa stockpiles monitored by the exchange climbed to a 2.25-year high of more than 3.57 million bags. At the same time, processor profit margins face pressure from elevated costs, and recent European grinding figures signaled softer quarterly demand.
Key points
- New York cocoa futures rose 1.00% to a one-month high, while London cocoa reached a six-week high.
- Heavy rainfall in the Ivory Coast damaged roads and bridges, delaying early harvest operations and port deliveries.
- Ivory Coast cocoa output for the 2026/27 season is projected to fall 18% to 1.8 million metric tons.
- Ghana cocoa production is forecasted to decline 13% to 650,000 metric tons due to disease and weather risks.
- Exchange cocoa inventories reached a 2.25-year high of 3,578,471 bags, providing a buffer against tight supplies.
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Why are cocoa prices rising?
Heavy rains in the Ivory Coast have damaged roads and bridges, delaying harvest operations and port deliveries. Prices are also supported by forecasts of smaller crop yields in West Africa due to bad weather, tree disease, and an emerging El Niño pattern.
How much is Ivory Coast cocoa production expected to drop?
Early assessments for the 2026/27 season project Ivory Coast cocoa output at 1.8 million metric tons, down 18% from approximately 2.2 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season.
What factors could limit further cocoa price increases?
Cocoa inventories monitored by the exchange reached a 2.25-year high of 3,578,471 bags on Tuesday. Additionally, recent figures showed lower quarterly cocoa grinding demand in Europe, and overall output from the prior harvest season remained strong.