Apple iPhone 18 Survey Signals Weaker Upgrade Intent Despite Strong Initial Demand
Initial consumer interest in the iPhone 18 from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) started strong among early adopters, but broader upgrade intent over the coming year has dropped. While 20% of surveyed consumers said they bought or pre-ordered the device—up from 17% for the previous model—only 41% plan to upgrade within the next 12 months, down from 48% in the prior survey.
Higher retail prices and reduced carrier discounts are discouraging mainstream buyers, though consumers are increasingly choosing premium versions. Among current buyers, 55% chose the Pro model and 45% selected the Pro Max, compared to 37% and 41% a year ago. This mix shift toward top-tier models could bolster average selling prices even if overall unit volume slows. At the same time, interest in artificial intelligence tools as an upgrade incentive fell to 33%, with 65% of respondents unwilling to pay a recurring monthly fee for AI capabilities.
Looking ahead, slower user growth could temper expansion in recurring services revenue. Additionally, consumer appetite for upcoming hardware remains cautious: while 44% expressed interest in the $1,999 foldable iPhone Duo, just 24% intend to buy it in the next year. Shares of Apple Inc. were trading at $344.90, up 0.41% for the day, while analysts maintain an Underweight rating given a valuation of roughly 40 times estimated 2027 earnings compared to its three-year average of 27 times.
Key points
- About 20% of consumers bought or pre-ordered the iPhone 18, up from 17% for the iPhone 17 last year.
- Only 41% of surveyed consumers plan to upgrade their iPhone in the next 12 months, down from 48% previously.
- Buyers are shifting to premium models, with 55% choosing the Pro and 45% selecting the Pro Max.
- Demand for AI upgrade drivers dropped to 33%, while 65% reject paying a monthly subscription fee for AI.
- Interest in the $1,999 foldable iPhone Duo stands at 44%, but only 24% plan a purchase within a year.
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How we writeDisclaimerQuestions and answers
How many consumers plan to upgrade to the iPhone 18?
A survey found that 20% of respondents bought or pre-ordered an iPhone 18, but only 41% plan to upgrade over the next 12 months, down from 48% previously.
Why are iPhone 18 upgrade plans slowing down?
Consumers cite higher prices and reduced carrier promotions as primary reasons for delaying upgrades, along with fading interest in artificial intelligence features.
What is the price and demand for Apple's foldable iPhone Duo?
The foldable iPhone Duo is priced at $1,999. While 44% of surveyed consumers expressed interest, only 24% plan to purchase it within the next 12 months.