Aluminum Prices Drop to Year-to-Date Low as Global Supply Rebounds
Aluminum futures dropped to $3,020 per tonne in October, marking the lowest price of the year and wiping out gains built up since conflict began between Iran and the US. In recent trading, aluminum futures stood at 3,112 USD, down 0.65% on the day.
A combination of a stronger US dollar and expanding global output has loosened market conditions. Smelters in the Middle East are bringing capacity back online quicker than anticipated after natural gas supply problems previously disrupted production. Emirates Global Aluminium restarted a quarter of its Al Taweelah facility in Abu Dhabi. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto reached an agreement securing operation of its Bell Bay Aluminium plant in Tasmania through 2031. At the same time, Chinese alloy exports doubled year-over-year to 4.46 million tons through August, as secondary producers bypassed local primary export duties to ship material overseas.
Investors will watch how fast remaining Middle East smelting operations resume full production and whether Chinese export volumes stay elevated. The steady influx of material from international producers could keep aluminum prices under pressure if global demand remains steady or slows.
Key points
- Aluminum futures dropped to a year-to-date low of $3,020 per tonne, erasing gains made since the start of the Iran-US war.
- Middle East smelters are restarting operations faster than expected following disruptions to natural gas supply chains.
- Emirates Global Aluminium resumed output at one-quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi.
- Rio Tinto secured an agreement to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter operating through late 2031.
- Chinese alloy export volumes doubled year-over-year to 4.46 million tons through August.
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How we writeDisclaimerQuestions and answers
Why did aluminum prices fall to a year-to-date low?
Aluminum prices declined due to a stronger US dollar, faster-than-expected restarts at Middle East smelters, increased supply outside the region, and a surge in Chinese alloy exports.
How much did Chinese aluminum exports grow through August?
Chinese alloy export volumes doubled compared to the previous year, reaching 4.46 million tons through August despite a 30% export duty on primary aluminum.
What facility updates were announced by major aluminum producers?
Emirates Global Aluminium resumed operations at a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi, while Rio Tinto reached a deal to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium facility operational through 2031.