Soybean Futures Fall as Weak September Processing Data Outweighs Chinese Export Sales
Soybean futures tumbled 10 to 12 cents across front-month contracts at midday, with November 2026 soybeans dropping 11 cents to $12.66 1/4 per bushel. Cash soybean prices also retreated 11 1/4 cents to $12.07 1/4. The market pulled back after disappointing domestic processing reports offset fresh export demand from Asian buyers.
U.S. processors crushed 196.3 million bushels of soybeans in September, down 0.8% from a year ago and 4.46% below August figures. The lower processing rate fell well short of market expectations, indicating softer domestic commercial demand. However, soybean oil inventories shrank 12.35% during the month to 1.053 billion pounds, reaching their lowest level since November 2014. Meanwhile, private exporters confirmed 330,000 metric tons of soybean sales to China for the 2026/27 marketing year, alongside 283,450 metric tons to undisclosed destinations, bringing weekly announced export sales above 1 million metric tons.
Traders are monitoring South American production potential as planting progresses. Estimates from Brazil's crop agency CONAB project the country's 2026/27 soybean harvest at 181.6 million metric tons, up 0.7% year-over-year. That forecast remains noticeably below the U.S. Department of Agriculture projection of 186 million metric tons, while Brazilian planted acreage expansion slowed to 1.43%, marking the narrowest annual growth rate since the 2011/12 season.
Key points
- Front-month soybean futures dropped 10 to 12 cents, with November contracts falling to $12.66 1/4 per bushel.
- U.S. soybean crush fell 4.46% in September to 196.3 million bushels, missing trade expectations.
- Soybean oil supplies shrank to 1.053 billion pounds, the lowest inventory level since November 2014.
- Exporters confirmed 330,000 metric tons of soybean sales to China, pushing weekly sales above 1 million metric tons.
- CONAB estimated Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop at 181.6 million metric tons, below previous U.S. government forecasts.
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How we writeDisclaimerQuestions and answers
Why are soybean prices falling?
Soybean prices declined due to weaker-than-expected domestic processing data for September, which showed crush volume falling 4.46% month-over-month to 196.3 million bushels and overshadowing recent export sales to China.
How much soybean volume did China purchase?
Exporters confirmed private sales of 330,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year, contributing to total weekly announced sales of over 1 million metric tons.
What is the Brazilian soybean crop estimate for 2026/27?
CONAB estimated Brazil's 2026/27 soybean production at 181.6 million metric tons, representing a 0.7% increase from the previous year. This forecast is lower than the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimate of 186 million metric tons.