Corn Futures Plunge as Surprise Yield Increase Expands U.S. Supply Estimates

U.S. corn futures experienced sharp losses on Friday after higher crop yield projections significantly boosted domestic production forecasts. Front-month contracts dropped between 19 and 21 cents during the session, with December corn futures settling down 20 1/2 cents at $4.79 3/4 per bushel. December corn managed to pull nearly ten cents above its limit losses before closing, finishing the week down 18 cents. Average national cash corn prices declined 22 3/4 cents to $4.39 per bushel.

The market sell-off followed updated production figures estimating average U.S. corn yield at 181.2 bushels per acre, an increase of 2.7 bushels per acre from the September report. Total domestic output was adjusted 234 million bushels higher to 16.034 billion bushels, coming in well above trade expectations. Coupled with a 173 million bushel expansion to 2025/26 carryout, projected U.S. ending stocks for 2026/27 grew to 1.849 billion bushels. While an offset of 125 million bushels in added demand across three major use categories helped absorb part of the supply, global corn ending stocks were revised upward by 8.34 million metric tons to 280.44 million metric tons.

Market participants will monitor how expanding supplies impact physical trade and whether speculative positioning continues to unwind. Managed money traders reduced their net long position by 60,491 contracts to 317,359 contracts during the week ending October 6, primarily driven by long liquidation.