Cocoa Futures Rebound as Ivory Coast Port Deliveries Drop 41%
Cocoa futures moved higher after recovering from early session losses, driven by shrinking supply arrivals from West Africa. Port deliveries in the Ivory Coast reached 78,212 metric tons between October 1 and October 18, representing a 41 percent decline compared to 133,209 metric tons delivered during the same period last year. Heavy rains in the region have flooded roads and damaged infrastructure, preventing farmers from harvesting and transporting beans.
The delivery slowdown comes against a mixed demand picture across key global markets. Third-quarter cocoa grinding figures showed surprising strength in Asia, where processing rose 29 percent year-over-year, and in Europe, which saw a 3.2 percent gain. Conversely, North American processing slipped 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, cocoa stocks monitored by the exchange reached a 2.25-year high of 3,606,396 bags, creating an opposing drag on prices.
Market participants are watching weather trends and upcoming harvest estimates closely. Strong El Nino conditions in the Pacific threaten to bring dry weather to West African growing regions, which could stress trees and curb output. Early crop assessments for the 2026/27 Ivory Coast harvest indicate smaller pod development, with production expected to drop 18 percent to 1.8 million metric tons, while Ghana projects a 13 percent reduction in its upcoming crop.
Key points
- Ivory Coast port deliveries fell 41% year-over-year to 78,212 metric tons between October 1 and October 18.
- Heavy rainfall in West Africa damaged roads and bridges, disrupting cocoa harvesting and transport.
- Global grinding demand was mixed in Q3, rising 29% in Asia and 3.2% in Europe, but dropping 2.5% in North America.
- Exchange cocoa inventories reached a 2.25-year peak of 3,606,396 bags, capping overall price gains.
- El Nino weather patterns and disease risks threaten West African cocoa production for the 2026/27 crop year.
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How we writeDisclaimerQuestions and answers
Why are cocoa prices rising?
Cocoa prices rebounded due to reduced port deliveries in the Ivory Coast, where heavy rains damaged roads and hindered harvesting, dropping early-season deliveries by 41% compared to last year.
How is global cocoa demand performing?
Third-quarter cocoa grindings surged 29% in Asia and unexpectedly rose 3.2% in Europe, though North American grindings fell 2.5%.
What is the supply outlook for West African cocoa?
Severe weather from El Nino, black pod disease, and poor pod development are expected to reduce 2026/27 cocoa crops in the Ivory Coast by 18% and in Ghana by 13%.