# Prediction Market Odds Show 75% Chance US-Iran Ceasefire Holds Through Midterms

- URL: https://stocks.freetheai.org/news/prediction-market-odds-show-75-chance-us-iran-ceasefire-holds-through-midterms-f5a2d3
- Published: 2026-10-12T05:18:45Z
- Category: macro; sentiment: neutral; impact: medium
- Symbols: [NASDAQ:POLYMARKET](https://stocks.freetheai.org/symbols/NASDAQ-POLYMARKET), [CRYPTO:USDCUSD](https://stocks.freetheai.org/symbols/CRYPTO-USDCUSD)
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President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will not resume military attacks against Iran prior to the November midterm Congressional elections, characterizing bilateral talks as productive. On prediction platform Polymarket (NASDAQ:POLYMARKET), traders using USDC (CRYPTO:USDCUSD) have placed over $150,000 in wagers on the agreement, giving a 75% probability that the informal ceasefire holds through the midterms.

Despite the temporary pause in direct conflict, regional stability remains fragile. Iran has launched over a dozen strikes on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz since late September and rejected U.S. proposals to end the conflict as insufficient. Meanwhile, recent missile strikes on Saudi Arabia's King Khalid International Airport killed 13 people and injured over 300, leading Washington to evaluate joining Saudi military actions against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Observers will watch whether prospective U.S. involvement in Yemen or continued disruptions along key Persian Gulf trade routes threaten the diplomatic dialogue and broader market stability ahead of the elections.

## Key points

- President Donald Trump stated the U.S. will not restart attacks on Iran prior to the November midterm elections.
- Prediction market platform Polymarket shows a 75% probability that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms.
- Over $150,000 has been wagered on the ceasefire prediction contract.
- Iran has launched over a dozen maritime strikes near the Strait of Hormuz since late September while the U.S. maintains a port blockade.
- The U.S. is considering joining Saudi military strikes in Yemen after missile attacks on Riyadh's airport killed 13 people.

## Questions and answers

### Will the U.S. resume attacks against Iran before the midterm elections?

President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. will not restart attacks against Iran before the November midterm elections, noting that ongoing discussions between the two nations are productive.

### What is the prediction market probability for the U.S.-Iran ceasefire?

Bettors on Polymarket have placed a 75% probability on the informal ceasefire continuing through the midterms, with over $150,000 wagered on the contract.

### What recent events are complicating the U.S.-Iran ceasefire?

Recent tension stems from Iran launching over a dozen shipping strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, along with missile attacks on Riyadh's airport that killed 13 people, leading the U.S. to consider supporting Saudi military actions in Yemen.