# Macquarie Equity Strategists Project AI Spending Slowdown and Highlight Defensive Stocks

- URL: https://stocks.freetheai.org/news/macquarie-equity-strategists-project-ai-spending-slowdown-and-highlight-8e71f3
- Published: 2026-10-20T00:18:21Z
- Category: analyst_ratings; sentiment: bullish; impact: medium
- Symbols: [ASX:TCL](https://stocks.freetheai.org/symbols/ASX-TCL), [ASX:MQG](https://stocks.freetheai.org/symbols/ASX-MQG)
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Equity strategists at Macquarie Group, Ltd. (ASX:MQG) project that a slowdown in artificial intelligence capital expenditure by 2027 could spark a global growth scare, pushing bond yields lower before central banks reduce interest rates. Analysts note that rising funding costs and tightening credit spreads are already pressuring marginal AI infrastructure projects, pointing to pulled initial public offerings and deal delays in the sector.

To navigate falling yields ahead of eventual interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia, analysts favor defensive assets that historically track bond movements. Large-cap stocks highlighted for this initial phase include toll road operator Transurban Group Ltd. (ASX:TCL), property groups GPT Group (GPT) and Mirvac (MGR), and medical device maker ResMed (RMD). Historically, toll road infrastructure and real estate investment trusts have delivered consistent relative outperformance when yields decline.

Investors are monitoring economic signals, including high inflation alongside unexpected domestic employment drops, which recently pushed Australian three-year bond yields down to 4.81 percent. A sector rotation is already under way on the Australian market, with staples, healthcare, and discretionary shares gaining over the past month, while mining and energy stocks remain exposed to potential underperformance as capital flows reallocate.

## Key points

- Analysts expect a 2027 slowdown in AI capital expenditure to drive bond yields lower before central banks cut interest rates.
- Defensive sectors like toll roads, real estate investment trusts, and healthcare historically outperform during initial yield drops.
- Key stocks highlighted for early outperformance include Transurban Group Ltd. (ASX:TCL), GPT Group (GPT), Mirvac (MGR), and ResMed (RMD).
- Sectors recommended to avoid during rate easing include mining, energy, and materials, which tend to underperform across both cycles.

## Questions and answers

### Why are analysts projecting a slowdown in AI capital spending?

Rising cost of capital and widening credit spreads have made marginal AI projects harder to fund, leading to delayed IPOs and deal cancellations that could trigger a broader slowdown in data centers, power, and equipment by 2027.

### Which Australian stocks perform best when bond yields fall?

Historically, defensive bond-like stocks such as toll road operator Transurban, healthcare providers, and property groups perform best as bond yields drop before official rate cuts begin.

### What sectors should investors avoid during central bank rate easing?

Historical market cycles indicate that mining, energy, materials, and capital goods sectors generally underperform both when yields fall and after rate cuts commence.